In recent years it has become almost, ahem, mainstream, to vehemently criticise the mainstream media (MSM). And I guess at times there is good reason to. Yes, there may be political bias, yes there may be sensationalism, yes there may also be an “agenda” at times. But for all the flaws and shortcomings of the MSM, what is the alternative?
In the age of social media, I find the alternative quite terrifying. On all social media platforms everyone effectively has a voice and on one hand that can be viewed as a good thing. The problem though is what these social media platforms have now become; veritable free-for-all cesspools brimming with unverified information. For the non discerning, this is very dangerous. We can be critical all we want of MSM outlets, but at least there are guardrails and filters in place. There is a curatorial and editorial function in place; something that is woefully lacking in the reams of neverending content on Facebook, Twitter/X, YouTube etc.
Even on more respected platforms like Substack there is a problem. Whilst there are many credible journalists and writers who use Substack the problem is that anyone can effectively be a journalist and, unlike with more traditional MSM outlets, there is no editor or verification agent in the house. Thus, we have to question a lot of what we read on these platforms. Especially if the information is unverified.
Unfortunately, many people are lazy and have cognitive biases (including myself) and it is simply too much work to verify everything that we read on social media platforms. At least with MSM publications, regardless of which way they swing politically, we can be rest assured that the information in the articles we read will be verified; whether we agree with it or not.
The decline of the traditional MSM is not something to celebrate and we should be careful what we wish for.
Leopold Aschenbrenner is a young German AI researcher and investor only in his mid 20s. From 2023 to 2024 he worked for Open AI. During his tenure at the company he was part of their “Superalignment” team that made technological breakthroughs with AI systems more complex and intelligent than humans. The team was eventually wound down and Aschenbrenner was fired from the company over an alleged information leak. Not long after his dismissal from the company he authored a 165 page essay entitled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead”, which was published in June 2024. In his essay he outlines the future trajectory and evolution of AI and the risks along the way. His essay received an enormous amount of global attention and raised his profile substantially.
After publishing his essay, he established a hedge fund called Situational Awareness LP (named after his essay and focused on AI), which received backing and funding from a bunch of heavyweight tech entrepreneurs and investors such as Patrick and John Collison (the co-founders of the fintech company Stripe), Daniel Goss and Nat Friedman.
Since the launch of the fund in July 2024 until just a couple of months ago, the fund made gains in excess of 1000%. That is a more than impressive gain in such a relatively short time span. This only cemented observers and investors’ views that the kid was a genius with the midas touch and a unique prescience. Until just last month when the fund collapsed from $45bn of assets to just $10bn. Now you may be thinking how could the value of the fund have collapsed so spectacularly in such a short space of time? Yet you could also ask the opposite question, how could the fund have racked up such spectacular gains in just two years? The answer of course is the L word; leverage. Whilst many investors and observers were drunk on the halo effect and would naturally attribute the past success of the fund to Leopold’s genius, a few actually cared to properly scrutinise the fund. And those that bothered to do any diligence were shocked by what they discovered. Their own research revealed that the company used as much as 400% leverage and thus they were not at all that surprised when the fund crashed hard.
This is not the first time something like this has happened nor I suspect will it be the last. Back in the mid to late 1990s, during the heating up of the dot-com bubble, there was an American hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management. LTCM was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether who had previously been the vice chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers. The fund’s board of directors included some very distinguished individuals such as Myron Scholes and Robert C Merton who both jointly won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1997 for their development of the Black-Scholes model; a mathematical model commonly used in derivatives trading. LTCM was initially successful with healthy double digit percentage annual returns. However, in 1998 things started to go badly wrong for the fund. In that year it lost $4.6bn in under four months due to taking on leverage (that L word again!) and exposure to both the 1997 Asian financial crisis and the 1998 Russian financial crisis. The fund was on the cusp of collapse that year and was only saved by a $3.6bn bailout from a group of 14 banks to prevent further contagion. LTCM was eventually dissolved two years later in 2000.
When I reflect on what happened with both Situational Awareness LP and Long Term Capital Management, my key takeaway is that the market doesn’t care how smart you are. It can often be a mistake to automatically conflate intelligence or genius with making good investment decisions. This is where that aforementioned cognitive bias, the halo effect, can be particularly devastating. I think as human beings we can be strongly swayed by narratives and sometimes a strong narrative alone in something is enough to give us conviction in our investment decisions. Yet narratives, especially powerful and red hot ones, can be dangerous. There is no substitute to doing your own research. It can be gruelling and unsexy, but it can also save you.
Today marks the 10th anniversary since David Bowie passed away. I still remember that day clearly. I was in South Africa watching the news on the TV and seeing the wealth of tributes. It was a shock. He kept everything very private. In fact, I was thinking of him just a few months before he died and I was wondering when he would, if ever, decide to go on tour again? His last world tour was more than a decade before that point and I foolishly turned down the chance to see him play at Wembley Arena back in 2003. 2003-4 would be the last time he properly toured and save for a few sporadic and brief live appearances, he would never tour again.
Just a couple of days after he died on January 12th 2016, I wrote a piece entitled, “The Death Of David Bowie, The Future And 3D Printing”. This would also be my very first blog post for my newly established blog website that was originally called The Slider. In this post I not only reflect just on David himself, but also the wider context of the future and new and emerging technological developments. For example, I talk about the concept of The Singularity and the inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil’s prediction that in 2045 artificial intelligence will surpass human intelligence. Back then the topic of AI was not on everybody’s lips like it is today.
And what has all this got to do with David Bowie, you may ask? For me, it is all very relevant when I think of him. Aside from being a great artist who changed the face of pop music and expanded the parameters regarding the possibilities of what being a mainstream pop artist can be, he also had remarkable prescience. As well as embracing and harassing change (as opposed to fighting it), he had a unique ability to see far into the future and had a pioneering spirit. A great example of this is his interview with Jeremy Paxman from 1999. Back then we were still in its early days of the evolution of the internet. There was a lot of excitement and hype over the internet. Naturally, there were believers and sceptics. The doubting Thomases saw the internet as just a fad whereas the believers saw the net’s huge potential. Bowie was definitely in the latter camp, but he wasn’t a blind and blinkered believer. He was one of the first artists to release his own music online and he saw the great possibilities of the internet and how it would shape our lives. Yet he could also foresee the negative impacts it would have on humanity. In the interview, Paxman remarks that the internet is “just a tool”, although I suspect he may have been playing devil’s advocate and trying to gauge Bowie’s response.
It is a popular theory to say that Bowie planned his death all along and that he checked out at the perfect time before the whole world turned to custard. It is a compelling theory, but I don’t buy it. I don’t buy it, because I firmly believe that Bowie loved life for all its ups and downs. Yes, he may have been highly secretive about his illness and meticulously planned his final album, but if he had the chance he would have given anything to live longer on this planet. In fact, I recall reading somewhere after he died that one of the things that made him the most sad about knowing that he was going to go so soon was knowing that he wouldn’t be around to see his young daughter grow. Moreover, I also seem to remember reading a tweet by his son Duncan, a few years after his death, where he said that if only David had not smoked so much throughout most of his life there would have been a good chance he would still be around. So no, I am not one of those folk who thinks that he “died at the right time”.
On the day he passed away and the days after his death, I watched people who grew up with Bowie as far back as those Ziggy Stardust days being absolutely heartbroken; as if they had lost a beloved soulmate. I was very shocked and saddened when he died. I love his music and spent a lot of time listening to his records. However, I did not grow up with his music from the early days of his career. It was the Ziggy Stardust period that was the tipping point and that finally turned him into a star after several years of struggling and false dawns. Those veteran fans remember when Bowie appeared on Top Of The Pops in the early 70s playing his song Starman with a blue guitar. For them, it was like witnessing some exotic and androgynous extra-terrestrial being. In those days long before the internet, social media and hyperconnectivity, witnessing this on the TV was exciting and a blast of colour in a colourless world. Throughout most of the 70s Bowie was firing on all cylinders creatively and almost every album he released during this period was excellent. He took risks and never rested on his laurels like some of his glam rock contemporaries and he knew when the time was right to wrap up the Ziggy phase of his music career.
Sometimes I ask myself, if Bowie were starting out today would he strive to make it as a pop star or even go into the arts full stop? Personally, I feel that he was more than just a pop star and he didn’t have all his huevos in one basket. I think one of the most important things to deduce about him, as I already explained earlier, is that he had a pioneering spirit. He embraced change and new and emerging landscapes. He was terminally curious and open minded. When Bowie’s career first really took off in the early 70s, the music industry was still growing and there was still a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of creative musical experimentation and what could be achieved. Even though there were wild and unconventional musicians that existed before Bowie first emerged, one could argue that Bowie was the first mainstream pop star who created the template for all future popstars regarding what they could be. Thus in the same way that The Beatles were probably the most influential band of all time, it would not be unreasonable to argue that David Bowie was the most influential pop star of all time.
“A mania first takes out those that bet against it and then those that bet with it” Jim Rodgers
DISCLAIMER: The following article contains just my opinions and thoughts regarding where I think US financial markets may be heading over the next 8 years. I am not a qualified financial adviser so please don’t blindly take my words as gospel. For any financial advice, please seek a qualified financial adviser.
In this article I will be focusing on US financial markets and their trajectory over the coming 8 years until 2033. The USA has the largest economy in the world and over the last 16-17 years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), its stock market has been a stellar performer. Back in March 2009, the S&P 500 index (that is the 500 largest US listed stocks by market capitalisation) was trading on a valuation of below 700 points. As I write this, the index is currently trading at over 6,300 points. This is a more than 9-fold gain during that period of time. Even more impressive is the performance of the NASDAQ index (which consists of many of the largest US technology companies) over that same time frame. In March 2009, the NASDAQ index was trading below 1500 points. Today it is trading above 21,000 points. This is a more than 14-fold gain during that period of time. Seriously mindblowing performance.
Yet as impressive as all this has been, several investors and analysts have warned about the US market being very overvalued and priced to perfection. And they are right to be concerned. The US financial markets alone make up just over 70% of the entire global stock market. Back in the 1980s, that share was only around 30% (1).
In addition to this, and more alarming, the current Shiller PE ratio (calculated as the price divided by the average of ten years of earning adjusted for inflation) of the S&P 500 index is at over 38 (2). This is historically very high. Over the last 124 years, the mean Shiller PE rate of the S&P 500 is just over 17. Thus the current ratio is more than double the average. That being said it is not at an all time high. This was reached back in December 1999, close to the peak of the DotCom bubble, when the ratio went above 44.
The AI And Emerging Technologies Tailwind
One big tailwind for the current high valuation of the US stock market is the current Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom. Many listed companies involved in AI have seen their stock prices fly over the last couple of years and this has contributed in a big way to the high overall valuation of the main US stock market indices. All of the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks including Tesla have trillion dollar market caps. The company Nvidia, arguably the poster child of this current AI boom, is now trading on a market cap of $4.4 trillion. This is the highest valuation of all the Mag 7 stocks including Apple and Microsoft. But even outside of the Mag 7, there are many stocks trading on absolutely bonkers valuations with multi-billion dollar market caps. One golden example is the software company Palantir. This stock has a current market cap of over $430bn and is trading on a PE of 587. Now such a PE would not matter if it were some junior small cap stock with a market cap below $100m, but this is a stock with a market cap vastly larger than any company on the London Stock Exchange.
However, even though a lot of investors and financial analysts are concerned about the current valuations of many of these stocks, I actually think that these valuations can get even more elevated in the short to medium term. And the reason for this is almost purely because of the current AI tailwind and narrative. The growth and exponential development of AI is very real and this will only continue to be turbocharged into the coming months and years. In many ways this is far bigger than those mid to late 90s early days of the internet. There is no doubt in anybody’s mind that AI is going to have an absolutely transformational effect on society and the way we all live. We can already see the signs via current AI models like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini. To a lot of people, the growth and future trajectory of AI has no precedent. There is nothing from the past that one can really compare it to; not the formative growth years of the internet or even the Industrial Revolution. That alone is a very powerful thing.
And although it is AI that is on everyone’s mind right now, I can see other important emerging technologies being on people’s lips. One such technology is Quantum Computing. This is a technology I can see developing very fast and very soon becoming just as talked about as AI. It will not just revolutionise computing, it will also help massively with further speeding up the development of AI. So although the current AI tailwind is very strong, I can see it gaining even more traction as all these other emerging technologies like Quantum Computing enter the public consciousness. And this is what will likely further elevate all those stocks that have already appreciated substantially in value.
A Shiller PE Ratio Of 70
Although the current Shiller PE Ratio of 38 for the S&P 500 is historically high, I can see it going even higher over the next few years and far surpassing its all time high of 44. The last two years have seen AI and AI related stocks soar hugely and I can see the next 3 years being even more crazy. In fact, the next three years will be on mind altering steroids. The current AI tailwind will soon become the “AI and Quantum Computing” tailwind and then later the “AI, Quantum Computing, Robotics, Nanotech and 3D/4D Printing” tailwind. All of this will push valuations for all those already hot darling stocks even further into the stratosphere. So do not be surprised to see Palantir with a $1tn plus market cap and Nvidia exceed a market cap of $10tn. This tailwind and the supercharged positive feedback loops will likely result in this new demented environment. Over the next few years there will be a lot of market volatility and a few mini market corrections (a la Trump tarifs circa April 25) along the way, but all these corrections will be very short lived and the US stock market will keep breaching new all time highs. Meanwhile, incomes will barely increase and the wealth inequality gap will get even more extreme. If this all occurs I think its a real possibility that by 2028, the NASDAQ hits an all time high of close to 50,000 points and the S&P 500 goes to 14-15,000 points. And the Shiller PE Ratio will be at around 70 points; at over 25 points higher than its all time high. Analysts fixated on valuations are already sounding alarm bells about the current high valuation of the US market. Yet over the next few years they will be screaming even more and looking in disbelief as those already high valuations simply further inflate into infinity. Yet I am going to make a prediction and say that at some point in the first half of 2028 the absolute top of the US market will be reached and then what will happen afterwards will be incredibly seismic and dangerous.
The Biggest Financial Crisis In US History
When the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices both reach their all time highs in the first half of 2028, this will precipitate the biggest financial crash and crisis in the history of the USA. It will far eclipse the 2008-9 Global Financial Crisis and also the 1929 Financial Crash and ensuing Depression. It’s possible that the NASDAQ index will fall sharply by over 50-60% in 2028 alone. There will be a huge stampede-like sell off in all those hot darling tech stops that dominated the zeitgeist for many years. I can see the DJT government, as it approaches the fag end of its current term, being in a state of genuine shock and completely taken aback by the sudden stock market plummeting with no abating in site. It will be a huge humiliation, especially to Trump himself who over the last few years took great pride in the seemingly neverending moonshooting valuations of the US stock market and the most popular tech stocks. It will likely also be the final major blow to his popularity even amongst his most staunch supporters. This major stock market crash will also occur at the same time when the USA has its first major government debt crisis and even defaults on a large portion of its debt. This will only increase the severity of the stock market crash with confidence dropping like a stone. During the 2008-9 GFC, government bailouts were given to companies that faced the real risk of collapsing. Central banks reduced interest rates to near zero and began massive rounds of Quantitative Easing (QE) to stimulate the economy. Such measures will prove deeply unpopular this time around. Public trust in government institutions and politicians is already at a very low level, but by 2028 when the financial crash is in full swing it will hit rock bottom. This will all result in irrevocable damage to the popularity of the DJT government and will pave the way for a stridently left wing leader and government to lead the USA post Trump. The USA may be historically the cradle of capitalism, but I can foresee mass disillusionment in capitalism in the wake of this seismic financial crash. It will hurt and affect so many people and there will be a fervently revolutionary spirit in the air where the new scapegoats will be, aside from the Trump government, all the very wealthy tech entrepreneurs, founders and executives of those company’s whose stock prices were soaring to dizzy heights before crashing back down to earth.
A Parting To The Left And The Scapegoating And Demonisation Of The Uber Wealthy
So when the US elections occur later in the second half of 2028, I predict that the new leader and government of the USA will be radically left wing. And the big reason for such a government coming into power, aside from the financial crash manifesting in a devastating way, will be the fact that despite there being an unbelievable stock market boom over the few preceding years, the levels of wealth inequality in the country reached dangerously high levels and the current DJT government did next to nothing to address this. They got too obsessed and blinded by the stock market boom (“America Is Booming!”) that they neglected and failed to address the concerns of many people.
This new left wing government will be just as extreme as the current DJT government, but in the complete opposite direction politically; like a pendulum swinging violently the other way. Their pre-victory campaign in the few months leading up to the election results day and in those months when the stock market is terminally crashing and the US defaults on its debt, will be focused heavily on the corruption, negligence and incompetence of the DJT government, the sky high levels of wealth inequality and a full on demonisation of the wealthy elite/oligarch class. The left leaning leader of this incoming government will be just as fiery as Trump himself; somebody with teeth and bite who suffers no fools and takes no nonsense. This will not be a puppet leader. However, although this may be seen as a welcome change by many people, it will be equally if not more unstable than the years of the preceding DJT government. By this point in the USA, there will be a huge revolutionary pitchfork movement against “the elite” and those with vast amounts of wealth. It will be almost dangerous to be in that category, especially if you are a high profile figure.
US Financial Markets In An Aggressive Multi-Year Long Bear Market
As the new left wing administration takes over, I can see the financial crash manifesting into a brutal multi-year long bear market with seemingly no end in sight. If 2028 is marked by a 50-70% fall in the major US stock market indices, 2029 will be marked by another chunky 40-50% fall and the same for 2030, 2031 etc. I think the bleeding will continue all the way into 2033. There will be no precedent in this epic multi-year long fall. Not even the years after the 1929 crash. But this is what happens when stock markets get elevated to extremely high levels. A Shiller PE Ratio of 70 for the S&P 500 index is beyond the realms of nuts. The US government debt default along with a new anti-big business/anti oligarch administration will completely crush investor confidence. The US economy will go from being an economic shining star to being an economic basket case.
A Post-Trump Era of Greater Regulatory Scrutiny
One major change that will occur when this new left wing government comes into power is that it will bring in a era of far greater regulatory scrutiny then ever and siding much more with the people than with the wealthy elites. This will be a huge change to the current landscape of very lax financial regulation and instances of financial fraud happening on a regular basis and often going unchecked and unpunished. The investor and infamous short-seller Jim Chanos famously called this period, “The Golden Age Of Fraud” back in 2020 (3). The wheels of the Golden Age Of Fraud continue to turn to this day and will only get even more extreme in the coming months and years all the way up to the 2028 financial crash.
When the previous GFC occurred, only a handful of people were punished and the subsequent years of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) and QE planted the seeds for an asset and stock market boom that still continues to this day and has resulted in a level of wealth inequality not seen before the famous 1929 stock market crash. From 2028, I can foresee the new administration passing lots of new laws protecting investors and massively curbing the kinds of excesses that took place in the past. This will also go hand in hand with a program of massive wealth redistribution and a strengthening and overhaul of the existing US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Investing From 2028-2033
The financial crisis in the USA from 2028 will be brutal. Aside from all the hot darling stocks that will be getting crushed as this unfolds, one asset class I would not want to be anywhere near are US treasuries. When the USA defaults on its government debt, this is not somewhere I would want to put my money.
When the crash occurs everything will go down including more defensive stocks with a low beta that barely rode the wave of the stock market boom of the preceding years. Although their valuations will be much more stable and robust and impervious to the rapid falls many of the golden tech stocks will be experiencing.
I have long been banging the drum for gold in the face of this very possible scenario. Over the last couple of years the price of gold has been creeping up. I find it interesting that during this period of the major US stock market indices hitting new highs, the price of gold has also been breaching new highs. This is quite unusual, but to me it signifies that much of the current stock market boom is artificial and there are real concerns, along with the ever expanding US government debt pile, that it is simply not sustainable. As I already stated, trust in government institutions and politicians is at a very low level and when trust is low this is often a tailwind for something like gold.
I think that as the US stock market continues to boom into the next few years, the gold price will also continue to creep higher. However, I think the period from 2028-2033 will be the period when the gold price will really start to go on an epic tear. Yet this will first manifest during the period when the US defaults on its government debt and faith in the US dollar begins to plummet. The price of gold will be rising massively in US dollars, but what does this mean when faith in the US dollar is declining? It simply means that gold is doing what it is historically always meant to be doing and that is being a store of value. This is not the same function as a hot growth stock. It isn’t about making money. It is about protecting and preserving wealth.
The “Comment Scam Ring” (CSR) is an alarming phenomenon that has become a huge problem on social media. It is most common in the comments section of various popular finance, investing and cryptocurrency related videos on YouTube. Below, I am sharing a random example of one of many such CSRs, which I extracted from the comments section of a video by a popular finance influencer on YouTube who will remain nameless…
Such CSRs prey on unsuspecting and financially inexperienced individuals by creating a false and deceptive narrative of success by luring them into financial schemes that are completely fraudulent. In the case of the above example, a fake non-existent financial expert/adviser called Jessica Dawn Walters is used.
I broached this issue recently with ChatGPT to get some information. The way such a CSR operates is as follows…
Firstly, it starts with “The Setup”, which is the first original comment. In this case…“As an investing enthusiast… I’ve been sitting on over $545K equity…”. This is the “bait comment”. The individual making the comment tries to come across as a genuine investor with a sizeable although not enormous sum of money (In this case $545k to create a false sense of honesty and trust) that they are looking to invest, but are not sure what to do. The goal of this original comment is to be as convincing as possible by targeting individuals in a similar situation.
That first comment is followed by the first reply in the form of “The Helpful Advice”…. “I lack the time… I’ve enlisted the services of a fiduciary…”. The purpose of this reply is to create the “idea” of a trustworthy professional. Many times a “fiduciary” is used that paints a picture of someone responsible and legally bound to work in your interest. This sets the stage for the next step, which is recommending a fake adviser.
But before we get to that stage, there is “The Curious Observer” comment in the second reply….“How can I participate in this?…”. This is the “fake social proof”. Another fake account pretending to be a normal curious person asking for more info. This is simply designed to make the whole comment thread more believable to unsuspecting individuals.
Then we arrive at the fourth stage of this CSR; the third reply in the form of “The Pitch”. This is when the name of the fake financial adviser is dropped…“I’ve stuck with Jessica Dawn Walters for about five years…”. A plain and realistic-sounding name is used to make it all look genuine. However, those who try to research the name via Google will invariably find fake websites and LinkedIn Profiles as well as fake WhatsApp or Telegram numbers.
This is then followed by the final stage in the thread or “The Closer”. In this case in the fourth reply, a fake account comments, “Thank you for this amazing tip…”, further stating that the fake advisor has been contacted and thus adding a deceptive layer of legitimacy to this whole fraudulent operation. Sometimes such a CSR can be on steroids where there are many fake closer comments all endorsing the fake adviser and stating that they have scheduled a call etc.
To many seasoned investors and financial professionals such CSRs instantly appear deceptive and unconvincing. However, there are many individuals who sadly fall for such scams. The relatability, fake sense of trust as well as the triggering of the primal FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) bug in such people leads them down this shady avenue. Such scams usually result in situations where these victims end up paying up-front “consulting” fees and falling for Ponzi scheme style “high yield” investment offers. In even more severe cases, once one of the victims has engaged in such acts they may be emotionally manipulated via further follow-up contacts and other too-good-to-be-true “returns” schemes to keep them parting with more of their money.
What amazes me is the lack of pro-activity (and action full stop) in dealing with such CSRs by the content moderation teams of the YouTube segment of Alphabet (the parent company of YouTube). It seems that much of YouTube’s content moderation system is automated thus allowing such scams to persist. But sadly such scams are common throughout the entire world wide web, which, since it became mass adopted almost 30 years ago, continues to be a messy wild west space. We can only hope that one day in the future the internet becomes a cleaner and safer space to interact in and where all the harmful and nefarious elements are kept out.
There is seldom a day that passes when I trawl through the feeds of my social media accounts and stumble upon an article or post that laments the current state of affairs for many individuals in the creative/media industry. It is true, especially in the last 15 years, that many writers, journalists, musicians, songwriters etc have had a rough time. The internet, since it’s mainstream adoption almost 30 years ago, has had a colossal effect on this industry.
The emergence of the music file sharing site Napster at the end of the 90s was the first real taste of the seismic effects that the internet would have on the music industry in the coming years since this platform was first unleashed onto the world. Yet, even back then, very few people were able to foresee the long term effects. The internet and technology were moving at an exponential rate and much of the music industry was slow to adapt. In fact, some of the large record labels decided to fight those early disruptive file sharing platforms rather than to evolve and try to stay ahead of the curve.
In the past, bands and artists were able to make a comfortable living on their physical record sales alone. The most successful bands and artists sold records in the millions. Today, the internet has completely taken a sledge hammer to this business model. It is now very easy to listen to most music for free. In the past 10-15 years, streaming platforms such as Spotify have emerged where for a monthly subscription fee one has access to vast libraries of music both old and new. Unfortunately, for the musicians, even a substantial amount of listens does not generate anywhere near the same income like back when people actually bought records. There is the option to purchase or download a song or album, but against options like Spotify and You Tube, nowhere near enough people consume music via this route making it very hard for musicians to make a decent living just via their songs alone.
The internet and digitisation of the printing presses have also had a corrosive effect on the incomes of many writers and journalists. Now many people can create a website and start a blog to share their own articles and written content. Print sales of newspapers have been in decline and the revenues from digital subscription sales falls short of revenue numbers for physical sales from years gone by.
However, I don’t think the current status quo of oceans of free content will continue. In the coming years we will see artificial intelligence (AI) play an increasing role in the way we live our lives. I have been fascinated by the development of AI for over ten years now, yet it’s only been in the last few years that it has really entered the public consciousness and everyone seems to be talking about it. Yet, despite this, most people are understandably very worried about the development of AI and see an almost dystopian future ahead.
I am going to throw my hat in the ring here and say that AI will benefit humanity and lead to a much better world. In the context of the creative industries, I think AI will be on the side of the creators. In my view, I think that as AI continues to improve it will get to the stage where it will be able to do most tasks better than humans can. As the internet further evolves, I can see the net also being policed around the clock by increasingly sophisticated AI. This will be a very good thing as it will lead to a crackdown on all the toxic and nefarious forces of the net. Currently, the internet is a very messy place, but AI will do a remarkable job of cleaning it up and protecting users from the dangerous aspects of it, making it very hard for unsuspecting users to fall victim to fraud, deception, undesirable entities etc.
Ever since the internet first became mainstream, it has, for the most part, been a free wheeling and wild west place and many government bodies and authorities have been slow to keep up with it. However, with AI, I expect in the coming years that the internet will be much more regulated and less of an uncontrolled wild west space. The implications of this will be lots of new legislation created and passed and also applications put into place, which protect internet users.
I think when all this is finally realised, it will have a huge effect on the way we consume content. Suddenly, almost all content will not be free any more. It will not be possible to listen to a song for free or read an article for free like we currently do. To listen to just one song or read just one article, you will have to make a payment in advance. The super strong and sophisticated AI that now controls the internet will mean that there is no other way around those rules. It will be impossible to fight these AI safeguards. Today, free content is taken for granted, but it won’t always be like this and people will eventually have no other choice, but to accept this new reality. I would go as far as saying that people will and with it their values will change. They will begin to fully appreciate what they are consuming and they will be happy to pay for it.
Musicians and writers will be able to make a decent living again through their art. Popular streaming services like Spotify will be doomed if they don’t change their business model. I envisage that if they want to survive they will have to go down the same route as Apple and offer music as a download service where the consumer pays for each downloaded song and album rather than a flat monthly fee for an unlimited tap of music. Furthermore, AI will provide much of the traditional print media with a new financial bonanza. Many news sites have been struggling with the decline of print sales and falling ad revenues. Subscription revenues have been meagre by comparison. However, when people start paying per article I think that there is a good chance that revenues will cease to decline.
Contrary to much of the prevailing narrative that AI will only further increase the hardships of musicians and writers, I think AI will financially enrich them. Back in the beginning of 2022, I wrote an article entitled, ‘The Future Could Be Very Bright For Song Rights’. At the time that the article was written, many musicians were selling the rights to their songs. Some, like Bob Dylan and Bruce Springsteen, for vast sums of money. However, despite all this, I was stressing the importance for musicians to think twice before parting with their song rights – even with lots of money involved. You see, it is very likely that AI will open up many new income streams for song rights. The big labels also foresee this, which is why they have been very active buying up all the song rights they can get their hands on. They see these huge new potential money fountains that AI will give birth to for song rights and they are acting now before it becomes a reality.
It is increasingly likely that at some point over the coming years, many musicians will deeply regret that they sold the rights to their songs. At the time they probably thought that they were making the right decision, especially given the precarious and fragile state of the music industry and their natural concern that it will continue to get worse. Recently, Queen sold it’s entire music catalogue to Sony for over $1 billion. A monumental sum of money. However, there is a good chance that over the next ten years, the value of Queen’s back catalogue swells to $5-10 billion. If this were to happen it would become prohibitively expensive for any of the surviving members of the band or members of their family to buy back those rights. This is something to consider for those tempted to sell their song rights at this stage in their career.
The bay of the historical Cote d’Azur town of Villefranche-sur-Mer has a special place in my heart. I have spent a vast amount of time over the last 12 years in this part of the world and the bay has always been of great importance to me. The bay, coupled with the climate and the light, have been a great source of fuel and inspiration to both my art and my imagination. It has given me so much in this respect.
My painting is a homage and gesture of gratitude to this unique source of inspiration. When I painted the bay of Villefranche-sur-Mer, I did so in my own style with a special emphasis on capturing the spirit and essence of this place. In the same way that Vincent Van Gogh brought alive the spirit, electricity and subtle colours in his famous landscape paintings created in the towns of Arles and Saint-Remy-de-Provence in the south of France, I strove to also achieve this in this painting.
In this painting, I wanted to execute the brilliance, clarity and different hues of blue of the bay with all the myriad of different boats and yachts that seem to have an almost permanent presence in the bay, especially in the summer season. And this brings a new energy and dynamism to the bay. The surrounding hills also have their own special energy. They strongly complement the bay and in the realms of colour alone, have more earthy, rustic and primordial hues. They support and ground the allure and glamour of the bay.
Text by NIcholas Peart
(c)All Rights Reserved
27th July 2024
Image: Nicholas Peart, “The Bay Of Villefranche-sur-Mer”, oil on canvas
I am sharing my artist statement, which I published in August 2019. I think it still holds up well today and is by far the best and clearest analysis of my paintings. To view my paintings, please click on the following link, which will direct you to them on my artist website. I have written and published several art related articles here on Latitude Post, including an earlier piece on my paintings from June 2016 entitled Spiritual Coding And Self Discovery: An Exploration Of My Paintings – Nicholas Peart, 26th July 2024
When I paint, I paint as if I were writing poetry. Yet poetry not restricted by the straitjacket of subject matter. My paintings are not bound by events or issues, especially, those that are social or political in nature. Neither are they limited or boxed by identity. To be clear on the latter, I mean identity confined by race, nation, social class, culture etc. More broadly, they are not bound by time and space. Therefore, I refer to my paintings as visual transcendental poems, since the essence of my paintings is not limited by the fundamental universal boundaries of time and space.
This essence is completely free; like stars, or fragments of matter in the universe. Irrespective of whether it’s alive or dead, visible or invisible. This essence exists eternally, in alternating degrees of energy states. The carcasses of my paintings – the canvases and applied paint – are not eternal, but the essence of my paintings – the underlying spirit – is very much eternal. The paintings themselves are no different to physical living organisms in their permanence. And that’s fine. But at the very least, they are brief records of this eternal and unbreakable essence.
My paintings are mirrors into my soul. Each painting I create is a tangible visual tapestry of my unconscious, or as I prefer to refer to this, the eternal source. And this eternal source pins down more clearly this essence I’ve been trying to explain. When I paint, I paint my feelings that originate from this eternal source. The ritual of painting enables me to materialise all my mental complexities. Each painting is a material, tangible document of these intangible and invisible complexities; whether they are my dreams or nightmares, feelings of happiness or sadness, moments of joy or pain, occasional senses of longing or nostalgia regressions, all my experiences, all my emotional complexities, my idealism, my romanticism, and so forth. The origin of those complexities derives from the true spiritual essence of my being, the eternal source.
When I compose written poems, just as my paintings, their essence originates from the eternal source. My best written poems originate when I am enveloped in a powerful and indescribable realm of magic, as if I am wading consciously through a fleeting secret world. And when I am unexpectedly thrown back down to a more superficial plain, then the written poems lose their power and connection to the eternal source. Whenever I attempt to write poetry in this more mono-dimensional vacuum, the results always feel forced and disconnected.
My paintings share the same essence with my written poems, but written poems are constructed with written words. With words, I can also project this eternal essence, yet when I paint, I can project and translate this essence in a freer and more expansive way. Via my paintings, one is presented with the opportunity to be immersed into this eternal essence of my spiritual being, which is permanent and will outlive the carcass of my physical being.
In my most recent paintings, which I’ve been working on since 2018, I’ve been experimenting more with colour. In my older series of paintings, the eternal source never left me. The composition and energy of my older paintings has always been strongly connected to this eternal source yet there was less sensitivity towards colour. I have always been aware of colour, but not to the same degree as I am currently aware and sensitive to it, so much so that I view it with more innocent and less jaded and tired eyes. My current approach to colour is akin to that of a child seeing the moon for the very first time and trying to seize it.
With my latest paintings I like to view and approach my newfound appreciation of colour as a brand new journey through light and as I paint I hope to continue to crystalize this light on the canvas.
By Nicholas Peart
(c)All Rights Reserved
Originally written and published in August 2019
Image: The Great Feast In The Parallel Cosmos (2019) by Nicholas Peart
By far the most well known of the great Mississippi Delta bluesmen is Robert Johnson. The Paganini of the Blues. The one who was said to have sold his soul to the devil in return for being able to play like no one else. He was truly a one off and isn’t called the King of the Delta Blues for nothing. I first listened to a compilation of his meagre recordings when I was 19 and I was blown away by them; by the magic and the mystic of these rudimentary and raw records as much as by his guitar skills. When Keith Richards from the Rolling Stones first heard one of his songs in the very early 1960s while living in a cold flat with fellow bandmate Brian Jones (before the Stones hit the big time), he famously asked who the other guitar player was? That’s how off the wall his guitar playing was.
Only two photographs survive and certainly no video footage of the man himself, although there are some who claim that there exists a very rare 30 second film footage of him. If anybody wants to know more about the man, especially from those who knew him, I highly recommend trying to track down a copy of the fascinating 1991 documentary produced by the musician John Hammond called The Search For Robert Johnson, which contains interview footage from his former lovers and some of his contemporary Mississippi bluesmen like Johnny Shins and David ‘Honeyboy’ Edwards. The latter is particularly instrumental in the Robert Johnson story especially since he happened to be there on that fateful night when Robert was poisoned by the partner of one of the women he was sleeping around with. His whiskey was laced with strychnine and he died a slow and painful death. Eyewitnesses at the scene including Honeyboy recalled that he was in so much pain he was howling like a dog all night. Raw Wild West stuff. It is difficult to imagine one of Mumfords & Sons getting into such a pickle.
Unlike Robert, Honeyboy went on to live a very long life. He died in 2010 at the age of 95. I was fortunate enough to have watched and met the man on two occasions. Firstly at an Irish Centre in Leeds in 2007 and secondly at the 100 Club in central London in 2008. Within the paradigm of the great original Delta bluesmen he is no Van Gogh or Gaugain like Robert or Son House, but he is a solid, special and integral component of that red hot time. When I watched Honeyboy in 2007, he was 92, but no slouch. When he was not sliding away on the expensive Martin guitar he was playing, he was knocking back bottles of Becks.
Yours truly with David ‘Honeyboy’ Edwardsin 2007
But let’s go back to the roots of that great time of those original Delta blues axemen. Where did it all start? Many blues aficionados point to Charley Patton as the grandfather of that whole original Mississippi Delta blues scene. Patton was born in Hinds County, Mississippi in 1891 (although some claim he could’ve been born as early as 1881). When Charley was a young boy his family moved to the Dockery Plantation cotton farm in the wilder northern part of the Mississippi Delta looking for better work opportunities. While his parents almost broke their backs working on the farm, ol’ Charley boy didn’t care too much for all that gruelling cotton picking. Instead, he dedicated his time to developing the Delta blues and becoming one kick ass guitar player. If he’d have tried to please his parents instead, a great void would have remained. Shit, if everybody tried to please their folks there would be little to no inspiration to draw from and a tremendous cultural poverty would prevail.
Charley Patton
Charley already lived like a rock n roll animal decades before the likes of Jim Morrison. He lived the quintessential hard drinking, hard livin’ rough and tumble life. A serial womaniser too, he married and had affairs about as many times as most people walk into their living rooms to crash on the sofa after a hard day at the office. If you look at the only photo of him that seems to exist, it is not the face of a man you could comfortably introduce to your mum and dad. You don’t need to be a psychic or know anything about the man’s personal history by looking at that photo to deduce that he was one ‘don’t fuck with me’ son of a gun. It also appears that he was an interesting mix of African American and Cherokee (or possibly even Mexican) heritage, which was unusual as most of the Mississippi bluesmen of that time were African American.
Within the whirlwind of his brief 40 years on this planet, he was popular and he played at many parties and events for both a black and white audience. He performed frequently at Dockery Plantation farm where he developed his own style. Even though Patton today is widely seen as the father of the Delta Blues he was highly influenced and tutored by a local musician called Henry Sloan who was one of the very early proto Delta bluesman. He was born in Mississippi in 1870 and died in 1948 leaving behind no recordings. Perhaps one could deduce that what the 13th century Italian artist Cimabue was to the development of the Italian Renaissance, Sloan was to the development of the Mississippi Delta blues. And in the context of the Italian Renaissance, Patton could be compared to Cimabue’s most gifted student Giotto.
As Patton performed at Dockery and other local plantations he got to know the legendary bluesman Willie Brown (more on him later). Patton also knew several younger bluesmen like Robert Johnson, Tommy Johnson and Howlin’ Wolf and just as Henry Sloan taught him, he mentored those younger Turks of the Mississippi Delta Blues. Patton was quite a versatile player and could play old hillbilly and country songs as well as traditional ballads and other styles. He was like a living jukebox who had a natural knack for whacking out almost anything from his battered six string machine. That may also explain why he was such a big draw at various events. He could play his own raw and authentic style of deep blues yet at the same time he could also give the people what they wanted.
My own introduction to Patton came when I was 20. Having spent most of the previous year obsessed with Robert Johnson, I naturally investigated further, checking out other great blues artists. Via a secondhand four CD compilation of miscellaneous blues performers which I purchased from Notting Hill Tape and Exchange for three quid, I discovered the Patton song High Sheriff Blues. I later checked out his other songs, but it was this particular song, which made a big impression on me. His deep gravelly whisky soaked voice hypnotised me. It was so unpolished, almost, dare I say, verging on rank. This was not the voice of an angel. This was the voice of a fucking criminal. If he came back from the dead to perform that song on the X Factor show, he would never have made the stage. He would’ve already been arrested and given a good hiding by one of the burley security guards at the entrance.
Willie Brown was a friend of Charley’s. Yet beyond this friendship he is one of the most mysterious of the early Delta bluesmen as well as one of the most influential. He is mentioned by Robert Johnson in his famous song Cross Road Blues in the line, ‘my friend Willie Brown’. I myself know very little about the man, but I am fascinated by his myth and legend in the history of the Mississippi Delta Blues. I see him more as a Henry Sloan figure, yet unlike Sloan who left behind no recordings, Brown did cut six songs for Paramount Records in 1930, which were released as three separate records on shellac 78rpm discs. Of those three records, only the Paramount 13090 two sided recording “M & O Blues” / “Future Blues” is known to have survived of which only three copies of that record are declared to be in existence (making it one of the rarest records in the entire history of recorded music). The other recordings are rumoured to have been destroyed in a fire. Alan Lomax, the son of the groundbreaking father and son field recording John and Alan Lomax duo, claims to have recorded that same Willie Brown in Arkansas back in 1942. Yet some dispute as to whether the recording he cut for Lomax, “Make Me a Pallet on the Floor”, was actually by that same Willie Brown who cut those early records for Paramount 12 years previously.
What is important though is Brown’s association with Patton, Johnson and the other legendary bluesman Son House. Willie Brown and Son House were very close. They were both born at the turn of the 20th century, both were musical partners who each cut recordings for Paramount (along with Patton) in 1930, and, more importantly, both musicians influenced Robert Johnson. Yet it was Son House, more than Brown, who was probably the biggest influence on Robert.
Eddie James “Son” House Jr was born in 1902 in a small Mississippi hamlet called Lyon situated to the north of Clarksdale, a town deeply rooted in the history of the Delta Blues. It was the birthplace of Willie Brown and John Lee Hooker. 1950’s Rock n Roll pioneer Ike Turner and the legendary early soul singer Sam Cooke also came from Clarksdale as well as numerous other musicians.
Son House
The interesting thing about Son House was that in his early years he hated the blues and was passionate about religion instead. He found that the blues, being the music of the devil and all that, went against his religious beliefs. At the age of 15 he was living in New Orleans and had started to preach sermons. He also married when he was 19 to an older woman called Carrie Martin. They then moved to Carrie’s hometown of Centreville in Louisiana where her father owned a farm. Most of Son House’s time over there was spent with her father working on his farm. It was grilling work under a swampy Deep South sky and after a couple of years, feeling he was being taken advantage of, he split from Centreville leaving behind Carrie, her father and his farm. House remembered of that time, ”I left her hanging on the gatepost, with her father tellin’ me to come back so we could plow some more.”
House, like his blues brother Charley, hated farm work and most forms of manual labour. He found a way out of it by accepting a position as a paid pastor, initially in the Baptist Church and then later in the Colored Methodist Episcopal Church. However during this period he began drinking and womanising. This conflicted greatly with his role as a pastor (no shit!!) and he eventually left the church.
In 1927, when Son House was 25, he threw himself into the Devil’s music he’d long tried to suppress. He began frequenting and playing at local Mississippi juke joints. Juke joints were rough and raw wooden, shack-like barrelhouse dens where music, dancing, drinking and gambling occurred. They were places where cotton plantation workers and other menial labourers could relax and wind down after a hard day’s work. These juke joints, scattered around the Mississippi Delta, were instrumental in the development of the Mississippi Delta Blues. It was at these juke joints that the younger generation of blues musicians like Robert Johnson, Howlin’ Wolf and Muddy Waters would watch Son House and his buddies Willie Brown and Charley Patton perform. Muddy Waters, just as much as Johnson, idolised Son House and he would try to go to almost every juke joint where House was playing.
One night when House was playing at a local juke joint around 1927/8, someone in the crowd brandished a pistol and went on a shooting spree. One of the bullets hit House in the leg. Son House swiftly reacted with his own weapon and shot the man dead on the spot. House was sentenced to 15 years at the Mississippi State Penitentiary. He served only two years of his sentence. His early release was the result of the intervention of an influential high ranking white plantation owner whom his family worked for. After his release, he left Clarksdale and caught a train to the small Mississippi town of Lula, 16 miles north of Clarksdale. Here he hooked up with fellow outcast Charley Patton who had already been kicked off Dockery Plantation, I imagine, for probably spending too much time creating one helluva racket on his six string machine, drinking and chasing women and not enough time being a good diligent cotton picker. Patton was with his partner in crime Willie Brown who by then had both developed quite a reputation on the local Mississippi blues juke joint circuit. All three of them would eventually play together and go on to cut records for Paramount.
This brings us now to Robert Johnson. The most legendary and famous of all the Delta bluesmen. For a long time the little I’d actually read and discovered about his life was either via the scant liner notes in the copies of his recordings I purchased and via well trodden anecdotes. There is so much mythology around the man. This is only fuelled by the fact that aside from the few recordings he left behind and just two confirmed photographs, almost all other information extracted about him has come from people who were associated and close to him. It doesn’t help that he died in 1938, before the second world war and at a time when mass media communications were far less developed than what they are today.
Recently though, I discovered a book called Escaping The Delta: Robert Johnson And The Invention Of The Blues by Elijah Wald. This is probably one of the best books out there on Robert Johnson that does a commendable job on hacking through the dense thickets of myths around his life and getting to some of the more mundane facts. Chapter 6 of Wald’s book, A Life Remembered, contains a lot of this information. Robert Johnson was an illegitimate child born in a small Mississippi town called Hazlehurst (about 30 miles from the capital, Jackson) on May 8th 1911 (although this date may be incorrect). His biological mother was married to a man called Charles Dodds who was a relatively wealthy landowner and furniture maker. Following a clash with some white landowners, Dodds was forced by a lynch mob to leave Hazlehurst. He had now started calling himself Charles Spencer. After leaving Hazlehurst, Robert spent 8-9 years in Memphis. It was in this city that he developed his love for blues music and the popular music of the time. He later returned to Mississippi to a small town on the Mississippi Delta. At school he had a friend named Willie Coffee who remembered Robert from that time for having a knack for playing the harmonica and the jews harp…
“Me and him and lots more of us boys, we played hooky and get up under the church. They had a little stand up there and we’d get up under there…and he’d blow his harp and pick his old jew’s harp for us and sing under there. We’d play hooky until the teacher would find our variety, and she’d make us come in and give us five lashes.”
On February 1929, before Robert had turned 18, he married fourteen year old Virginia Travis, who shortly died in childbirth. Some argue that this tragic incident had a deeply traumatic effect on Robert and was the catalyst for his life of rambling. During this time Robert crossed paths with Son House and Willie Brown who would both have a huge effect on him. I’d already been aware of the influence Son House had on Robert when I purchased some cheap double CD comp of all his recordings. I was also familiar with the name Wille Brown as I heard his name mentioned in his song Cross Road Blues (‘You can run, you can run, tell my friend Willie Brown’). In the scant liner notes of those recordings, there were quotes from Son House directed at Robert. Most of these quotes were from Son House telling Robert to quit making such a racket on that guitar. Even though in those early days he was a talented harmonica player, Robert was a very rudimentary guitar player and would drive people nuts in the juke joints. As Son House recalled…
He (Robert) used to play harmonica when he was ‘round about fifteen, sixteen years old. He could blow harmonica pretty good. Everybody liked it. But he just got the idea that he wanted to play guitar….He used to sit down between me and Willie. See, Willie was my commenter, you know, he’d second all the time, he’d never lead. I’d do the lead. And we’d be sitting about this distance apart, and Robert would come and sit right on the floor, with his legs up like that, between us.
So when we’d get to a rest period or something, we’d set the guitars up and go out – it would be hot in the summertime, so we’d go out and get in the cool, cool off some. While we’re out, Robert, he’d get the guitar and go bamming with it, you know? Just keeping noise, and the people didn’t like that. They’d come out and they’d tell us, “Why don’t you or Willie or one go in there and stop that boy? He’s driving everybody nuts.”
I’d go in there and get to him. I’d say, “Robert,” I’d say, “Don’t do that, you’ll drive the people home.” I’d say, “You can blow the harmonica, they’d like to hear that. Get on that.” He wouldn’t pay me too much attention, but he’d let the guitar alone. I’d say, “You stop that. Supposing if you’d break a string or something? This time of night, we don’t know no place where we can get a string.” I’d say, “Just leave the guitars alone.”
But quick as we’re out there again, and get to laughing and talking and drinking, here we’d hear the guitar again, making all kinds of tunes: “BLOO-WAH, BOOM-WAH” – a dog wouldn’t wanting to hear it!
Then one day Robert disappeared for many months. During that time, he got married to a woman named Callie Craft and performed frequently in various juke joints and lumber camps. When he returned, he persuaded Son House and Willie to let him play at a small joint they were both playing at. Initially, they were both very sceptical but they eventually caved in. When Robert got on the stage he blew everybody away with his playing. As impressed as Son House was, he was concerned that Robert was by that stage accelerating head on into the musician’s life and embracing the liquor, women and drugs that came with it. Whenever Son House tried to warn Robert of the dangers of this lifestyle, Robert would simply shrug and laugh it off.
From 1931 until his death in 1938, he led an almost nomadic existence travelling across the country and leaving all the people he encountered dazzled and spellbound by his off the wall guitar playing. One thing I immediately notice when I study those two photos of Robert are his abnormally long fingers. Johnny Shines, who sometimes travelled with Robert during those final seven years of his life, remembered, ‘His sharp, slender fingers fluttered like a trapped bird.’
The bluesman Robert Lockwood Jr, born just a few years after Robert in 1915, learned to play guitar directly from Robert Johnson. Robert lived with Lockwood’s mother off and on for ten years. Lockwood was born in the same year as Honeyboy Edwards and also lived for a long time into his 90s. On a two week trip to New York City back in September 2006, I discovered that Lockwood was playing one evening at a small venue in the city of Cleveland in Ohio during my stay. He was 91 at the time and along with Honeyboy one of the very few remaining original Mississippi Delta Bluesmen still alive at the time. Unfortunately, I passed on the opportunity to see him on the grounds that I didn’t have enough time on this trip and that the greyhound bus from NYC to Cleveland was both too long and too expensive. I did however make up for this lost opportunity by seeing Honeyboy in concert twice over the following two years.
One of Lockwood’s memories of Robert Johnson was how isolated and restless he was. He never seemed to want to get too close to anyone and would always be on the move;
“Robert was a strange dude. I guess you could say he was a loner and a drifter.”
Johnny Shines, during his time spent with Robert, remembered that in addition to his incredible musical skills, he also had a strong aura and magnetic appeal;
“…Robert was a fellow very well liked by women and men, even though a lot of men resented his power or his influence over women-people. They resented that very much, but, as a human being, they still liked him because they couldn’t help but like him, for Robert just had that power to draw.”
Personally, I can fully believe this. Whenever I look at the photo of Robert looking incredibly dapper and handsome with his guitar and pinstripe suite, there is something striking and hypnotic about him that one just doesn’t easily forget. He was not some rough and tumble Charley Patton or Son House character. There was an elegance and fineness about him. Shines also remembered Robert as being quite a versatile musician who was up to date with all the latest musical styles and sounds. In this sense that is what separated him from the older Delta blues players such as Patton and House. Aside from the blues, Robert was also able to play anything from hillbilly songs to Bing Crosby hits:
“He did anything that he heard over the radio…When I say anything, I mean anything – popular songs, ballads, blues, anything. It didn’t make him no difference what it was. If he liked it, he did it. He’d be sitting there listening to the radio – and you wouldn’t even know he was paying attention to it – and later that evening maybe, he’d walk out on the streets and play the same songs that were played on the radio.”
This was all quite a revelation to me. For a long time, I thought Robert was a pure bluesman and that he didn’t play anything else beyond the small collection of recordings he left behind. That’s how much I fell for this kind of a myth. I could not envisage this other side to him.
However, it is those recordings that he left behind that I prefer to remember him for. As they are an astonishing set of recordings. I think that I would be deeply disappointed to hear Robert hollering some hillbilly tune. The story of these recordings begins in 1936, just two years before he died. At some point during that year, Robert walked into a furniture shop, H. C. Spier, in the city of Jackson. As well as selling furniture, Spier also sold phonographs and records in addition to being a talent scout of note in the area. Most of the Mississippi Delta blues musicians had got their recording deals via him. When Spier first heard Robert he was impressed with his skills and connected him with a guy called Ernie Oertle, who was an agent for the ARC company and who booked Robert in for a session at the Gunter Hotel in San Antonio, Texas in November of that year. The sessions were conducted over three days on November 23, 26 and 27 where he recorded a total of sixteen songs – recording two takes of each song. Of Johnson’s total recorded output left behind, there are several songs that were recorded twice.
The sessions Robert did in November 1936 yielded one modest hit, “Terraplane Blues”, which sold reasonably well. When Son House, who had initially in those earlier days so doubted Robert and his guitar skills, first heard that song he was knocked out by how good it was;
“Believe the first one I heard was ‘Terraplane Blues.’ Jesus, it was good. We all admired it. Said, ‘That boy is really going places.’”
The sales of those recordings from the November sessions were respectable enough, that ARC invited Robert back in June 1937 for another session this time in Dallas. For those sessions Robert recorded a further thirteen songs. Unfortunately, Robert’s life would soon be cut abruptly short. His reputation as a ladies’ man would eventually have grave consequences. As Shines recalled…
“Women, to Robert, were like motel or hotel rooms. Even if he used them repeatedly he left them where he found them. Heaven help him, he was not discriminating. Probably a bit like Christ, he loved them all. He preferred older women in their thirties over the younger ones, because the older ones would pay his way.”
Even though many women were attracted to Robert, it was natural that some men were going to be jealous. As Shines further adds…
“If women pull at a musician, naturally men’s gonna be jealous of it. Because every man wants to be king…and if he’s not king and somebody else seems to be on the throne, then he wants to get him down. It don’t take very much to set people off when you’re being worshipped by women. And so naturally we got into a hell of a lot of trouble.”
This last paragraph from Shines pretty much gets to the heart regarding the reason why Robert was poisoned on that fateful night at a small country joint concert near Three Folks in Greenwood, Mississippi in August 1938, which he was playing with Honeyboy Edwards. According to Edwards, the man who ran the joint was under the impression that Robert was sleeping around with his wife. So, at the show he gave Robert some whiskey to drink laced with strychnine, which he duly accepted. In a sense, Robert was still at this point rather naive. As I mentioned earlier, Son House would invariably warn Robert to be careful regarding the lifestyle he was living. He often told him not to accept any drink that was given to him as he may not know what may be in it. Sometimes House would be very cross with Robert when he behaved like this and would duly push the offered bottle of whiskey away from him. Robert would get angry and say, “Man, don’t ever knock a bottle of whiskey out of my hand.”
But Robert paid a huge price in the end. There was nothing romantic or glamorous about the way he died. He died a very painful and undignified death and was still just a young adult of only 27 – arguably one of the first members to join that club long before Jim, Jimmy, Brian and Kurt. Son House, born almost a decade before Robert, lived well into his 80s passing away in October 1988.
By Nicholas Peart
Published 16th May 2024
(Written 2016/2024)
(c)All Rights Reserved
.
FURTHER READING:
Escaping The Delta: Robert Johnson and the Invention of the Blues by Elijah Wald
Searching For Robert Johnson by Peter Guralnick
VIDEOS:
The Search For Robert Johnson – directed and produced by Chris Hunt and narrated by John Hammond
RECORDINGS:
The Complete Recordings – Robert Johnson
Back To The Crossorads: The Roots Of Robert Johnson
The stock price of the much hyped American technology company Nvidia has been on a truly staggering rise since September 2022 that doesn’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon. In fact, since the company posted its latest financial results yesterday, the company’s stock price is currently trading at close to it’s all time high up nearly 10% during current after hours market trading.
On 1st September 2022, the share price of Nvidia was trading at around $121 a share. A little earlier this month, the share price hit an all time high of $746 a share representing more than 6 times increase in the share price of Nvidia in less than 18 months. When the company stock hit it’s all time high it had a market capitalization of more than $1.8tn. With a current after hours market trading share price of $736, the current market cap is very close to that figure.
The latest results were on the surface very impressive. For the year ending on January 28th 2024, total revenue was $60.922bn. This is more than double the total revenue of $26.974bn for the previous year ending on January 29th 2023. Digging a bit deeper into the breakdown of its latest reported total revenue figure of $60.922bn, $47.525bn of this amount was generated from its Data Center business. This figure represents a more than 200% increase compared with the previous year figure of $15.005bn for this segment of Nvidia. A spectacular increase indeed.
What is interesting though when comparing the revenue breakdown figures for both the year ending on January 28th 2024 and the year ending on January 29th 2023 is how relatively flat the other business segments of Nvidia have been. For example, the revenue generated from its Gaming business grew from $9.067bn to $10.447bn representing a more sober increase of just 15%. In fact, for the year ending January 30th 2022, the revenue from its Gaming business was $12.426bn meaning that the revenue from its Gaming business for the year ending on January 29th 2023 actually decreased by 27%.
Revenue from its Professional Visualisation business increased by just 0.58% from $1.544bn on January 29th 2023 to $1.553bn on January 28th 2024. Interestingly, for the year ending January 30th 2022, revenue from this segment was higher at $2.111bn meaning that the current revenue from this segment is down by more than 25% from two years ago.
Pretty much the vast majority of Nvidia’s revenue growth has come from its Data Centre business. However, the important question is whether the current share price and market cap of Nvidia is justified?
Here is the problem I have. Although it is impressive for any company to more than double revenues in the space of a year, the current total revenue figure of $60.922bn is peanuts next to a market cap of $1.8tn. The share price is trading at close to 30 times total revenue. I used to think that a company trading at 10 times revenues was madness, but this company surely wins Olympic Gold for the utter insanity of its current market cap. And what is even more mind blowing here is that this is a company with a market cap of more than half of the UK’s GDP. This is not some cheeky small cap stock.
Of course, there will be some who push back on my analysis with words along the lines of Nvidia being at ‘the forefront of the AI Revolution’, etc. But none of this matters. We’ve been here before. Bubbles of this scale never end well. In fact, I will leave you with the words of Scott McNealy, the former CEO of Sun Microsystems that was one of the hot stocks during the dotcom boom and bust of the late 1990s and early 2000s…
At 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? Do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don’t need any transparency. You don’t need any footnotes. What were you thinking?