Could Gold And Silver Bullion Be The Best Place To Invest Your Money For The Next Few Years?

gold-and-silver-bars-finance-economy-admin-900-x-506

This is not going to be an easy article to write. Almost two years ago I wrote a similar article focusing on why investing in gold could be a smart move. This was around the time of Donald Trump’s surprise US presidential victory. Like the result of the UK Referendum to remain or leave the European Union, it was a classic black swan event, which very few foresaw. Around that time the conventional wisdom was that the world was going to go to hell in a handcart and that gold or anything seen with ‘defensive’ qualities was the place to invest your money. Gold in fact did not do much after Trump’s surprise win and actually went down in value. By the end of 2016 gold was just trading at less then $1200 an ounce. As of today gold is trading at $1232 an ounce.

Many analysts and others have been mystified by the lack of movement in the gold price over the last two years when one takes into account much of the geo-political situation and volatility engulfing the world. During that time period the biggest winners have been cryptocurrencies. 2017 was the year when Bitcoin and interest in other cryptocurrencies exploded. I mentioned Bitcoin briefly in my article from two years ago yet my understanding of the currency was limited. From January 2017 until the end of that year, the price of Bitcoin went mad shooting from $1000 a coin to almost $20,000 by December of that year. I remember being in a café in Amsterdam in June 2017 investigating Bitcoin further. Around that time the price was $2500 a coin. It had already more than tripled in value since the time I wrote my last article on gold around the start of November 2016. Even at that time I thought the price was overvalued and I was sceptical, especially since a new kind of herd mentality was manifesting. By that time interest in other cryptocurrencies was also taking hold. Ethereum, for many months just the preserve of hardcore crypto-heads and early adopters, was also exploding in value. It was my sister who first made me aware of Ethereum back in April 2017. Around that time the price was $50 a coin. At the start of the year the price was only $10 so it had an even bigger rise than Bitcoin. Yet two months later at the café in Amsterdam I was flabbergasted to witness the price shoot up even further to almost $400 a coin. Litecoin, the silver to Bitcoin’s gold, only around $4 a coin at the start of 2017, was trading at $30 a coin in June 2017. When the first surge of mainstream interest hit Bitcoin towards the end of 2013, Litecoin was by far the second most popular cryptocurrency. But since that first spike of interest, Litecoin (and Bitcoin) crashed and was in the doldrums for over three years before the next spike in 2017.

Since the start of 2018, the bubble burst for crypto and many cryptocurrencies lost a lot of their value. Interest still remains high and compared to the others, Bitcoin has held its value the best trading around the $6,500 mark over the last couple of months. You may be thinking why am I mentioning cryptocurrencies when the focus of this article is supposed to be on gold and silver? It is because there are some who think that certain cryptocurrencies take away the monopoly that precious metals have traditionally always had as a so-called ‘store of value’. It has been said that all the gold in the world amounts to the capacity of just three Olympic size swimming pools. It is scarce. Yet some argue that Bitcoin (and also Litecoin) is also a store of value since it has a supply cap of just 21 million coins. Two of the biggest investors in Bitcoin, the Winklevoss twins (also known for their association with Facebook), have gone as far as saying that Bitcoin will replace gold as a traditional store of value and that in the future, the scarcity of gold will be eroded by asteroid mining. It is true that Bitcoin has certain advantages gold doesn’t have. If you own lots of physical gold or silver you may have to store it in a vault and there will be storage charges. Moving it around with ease may also prove tricky. There is none of that with Bitcoin since it is digital and can also be used for swift payments. But that can also be its undoing; the fact that it is digital. In some countries such as Bolivia, it is illegal to trade Bitcoin or to use it as a payment method. At the end of the day, global governments can very easily outlaw it. Even if you had lots of Bitcoin in cold storage on an external hardrive in your bedroom it would be useless if that happened. That doesn’t mean to say I am against Bitcoin and crypto. I kind of have a secret admiration for it as, despite its volatility, it has enabled many ordinary citizens in some countries like Venezuela, which has been devastated by hyperinflation, to protect their hard earned savings from being further decimated in value. It isn’t always easy to acquire precious metals or even hard fiat currency for ordinary citizens in those parts of the world, so crypto can fill that gap in its accessibility.

I cannot predict the future of Bitcoin or where it and other cryptocurrencies may be heading. One of my biggest concerns regarding Bitcoin is that it is still far from being widely adopted and the people that own it are only doing so for speculative purposes. What’s more, I can only think of one place where I used Bitcoin and Litecoin to purchase something and that was at a Bitcoin café in Prague last year. Then again, more fool me if cryto goes an another epic bull run reaching dazzling new heights.

The reason why I like gold and silver is because neither are really in vogue at the moment. They are not as sexy or hot as crypto and I like the fact that the prices haven’t moved much and are still depressed compared with the new heights they both reached during the early part of this decade. Yet gold and silver can be frustrating assets to hold. If you go on YouTube there are no shortage of ‘gurus’ forecasting how gold will go to $10,000 an ounce and silver $1,000 an ounce. There is a lot of cynicism regarding gold and silver. Some argue that all those so called experts have been saying that gold will go to the moon for many years and it just hasn’t happened. Gold and silver haven’t moved much since the last spike around 2011-12 and so many gold and silver holders are understandably experiencing a heavy dose of fatigue and impatience.

Gold and silver prices are very difficult to predict and can sometimes move strongly for no rational reason at all. Traditional factors such as inflation, political instability, low interest rates, a weakening US dollar or a global stock market crash are no guarantee that a rise in the price of gold or silver will follow. Yet one thing is as clear as day; global debt levels are at an all time high. Not just in the developed world but also in the developing world especially in China. Most global stock markets have also been on a long bull run since 2009, yet this month we have witnessed the first signs of this bull market being derailed. In the process the price of gold began to rise, albeit very modestly. I would like to think that now the fortunes of gold and silver are finally about to change and I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point over the next few years, gold and silver prices started to go on a dazzling bull run similar to the one in the crypto space last year. If this happens sentiment towards these precious metals will change with a lot of ordinary investors wanting in to avoid FOMO (fear of missing out) syndrome thus enabling the price to rise higher. The beauty of the insane crypto bull run last year was that very few people saw it coming. If you read most of the comments on YouTube videos dated before 2017 relating to Bitcoin, most are negative and completely write off Bitcoin. A lot of that sentiment has changed now.

Generally, I prefer gold and silver bullion to owning shares in gold and silver mining companies. Yet on the other hand, just a modest rise in the price of gold and silver can cause an even bigger rise in the share price of gold and silver mining companies. What’s more, some of these companies also pay a dividend. But then you are also exposed to things like political risk if the mines are located in politically unstable parts of the world. Or company mismanagement etc. Owning gold and silver bullion protects you from these risks.

One site I like as a UK resident is called Bullion Vault. It enables one to invest in gold and silver bullion with no minimum limit. You can invest in just £10 worth of gold (which at current prices means owning less than a gram). And you can also choose the location of your vault in cities like London, Zurich, New York, Singapore etc. There are storage costs yet the storage costs are greater for silver than for gold. You do not own your metal physically in your hands (although there are bars you can purchase), but rest assured that the metal you purchase is yours safely in a vault and you would still own it even in the unlikely event that Bullion Vault itself went bust.

You can of course purchase gold and silver bars and coins, yet its your responsibility where you decide to store them. The Birmingham based BullionByPost is the largest online bullion dealer and a good contact to have.

 

Nicholas Peart

(c)All Rights Reserved

 

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the article are mine and shouldn’t be taken as gospel. It is always important to do your own research before making investment decisions. 

 

Image: mining.com

 

 

The Pimped Up Bar Mleczny

IMG_20181026_085748_496

Pizza King Express is maybe the best place to eat in Budapest. I will probably get shot down in flames for saying this. At the ‘traditional’ restaurants serving Hungarian cuisine you will likely hear more English than Hungarian and will pay more money. You may also encounter surely staff if the place is popular. But not here. The staff here are a bunch of jokers and the food is ridiculously cheap even with a lousy pound sterling. A slice of pizza is 200 Forints (less than 60p). A tiramisu (enough for two) – yes, you better believe it – is 300 Forints (a little north of 80p).

During Communist times in many Eastern European countries you had these places called bar mlecznys, which in Polish literally translates to ‘milk bars’ – dirt cheap restaurants serving pretty basic food, but perfectly good. They used to be very popular with students or anyone without much money. Most of these places are a thing of the past now. There are a few still kicking around. For me Pizza King Express represents a new kind of ‘pimped up’ bar mleczny. That is, it may not be as threadbare as a traditional bar mleczny. Maybe I am stretching it using the words ‘pimped up’. But you get my drift. It has the same prices as the traditional bar mlecznys of yore filled by the same type of people who used to visit the originals. The only difference is that the menu is more global. Dare I say more ‘Westernised’. You can get pizza, kebabs, baklava (delicious sweat cake), tiramisu and rice pudding and all for just a few coins. Its a fraction of the price of Pizza Hut, which is next door, and a better and more delicious experience.

Hungary is not a rich country and wages are feeble. Budapest can be an expensive city if you are a local in menial employment. For that reason places like Pizza King Express are a godsend for locals. Its funny that most congregate here for a slice of cheap pizza and less at the ‘traditional’ Hungarian establishments no matter how good or tasty the food may be at those places.

The original bar mzlecznys were not only a product of Communism. They were a feature of when that part of the world was a much less connected place and people had limited access to information. In today’s post-communist globalised world with this tool called the internet, that has all changed. Younger generations from former communist countries are more aware, savvy and knowledgeable about the world, other cultures and how other people around the world live and their tastes. Pizza King Express caters for this younger generation as well as others who don’t want to spend too much money. In a paradoxical way, it is more ‘authentic’ to eat here than at the traditional restaurants, which promote themselves as ‘authentic’. It may be a pedantic and trivial observation, but there is a kernel of truth to it.

 

By Nicholas Peart

(c)All Rights Reserved

Solutions Solutions Solutions

light-bulb-2010022_1920

There are many problems and challenges facing the world and no shortage of writers and journalists in the media who are only too willing to heighten our awareness of all these issues. What there is a shortage of though, are individuals finding solutions to all these issues.

Talk is cheap. Withering, junk-food grade criticism is even cheaper. I am forever bored of writing that amplifies the problems of the world without shedding at least a mere pinhole of light and solutions to these problems. This is one of the reasons why I am turned on by hearing and learning about new and emerging technologies, because more often than not they provide solutions to most of these problems. They also enable me to foresee a future that is not as dire as what is often projected in much of the media.

For example, a very real and pressing social issue in the UK is the underfunding of the National Health Service and the uncertain future it currently faces. This is a huge concern as private healthcare can be very expensive and not everyone can afford it. This is especially true across the pond in the USA, where healthcare is notoriously costly. The biggest solution I see to making healthcare cheaper, more abundant and available is the further development of new and emerging technologies. Many fear the rise of Artificial Intelligence and Robotics. But the development of both these two technologies will bring unprecedented benefits in the race to making healthcare not only more affordable (or even almost free) but more advanced too. Imagine robotic surgeons much more advanced than human surgeons – they don’t get nervous or stressed, they can analyze the entire human body at the molecular level and perform surgeries with nano precision. Already robotic surgery devices exist yet the scope for further development is limitless. Nanotechnology will play a very important role in understanding the entire body at the celular level and will be revolutionary in enabling everyone to maintain optimum health at all times without any viruses and damaged cells occurring. And all this can be managed via a digital application or chip without intervention from a finite supply of human doctors. I could go on but it is solutions like these to a current and real crisis that give hope and enable one to re-evaluate their hard wired negative perceptions of a situation.

Worried about the rising costs of education? Virtual Reality will be a huge game changer. This will be an enormous boon in parts of the world where there is a limited supply of teachers. With VR you won’t even need to physically step into a bricks and mortar learning institution.

There are many parts of the world, which lack enough of the right type of land to grow crops. Vertical farming is one of the potential solutions especially at the aeroponic level where crops can be grown simply via the nutrients in the air. It is still a technology that is very much in its infancy yet would reduce global hunger levels dramatically once it gets to a stage where it is much more advanced.

These are just a few solutions. I am no engineer, scientist or inventor, but knowing that these are very real solutions with the capacity to eradicate many of the most pressing global problems fills me with hope and optimism for the future. It sure beats being constantly fed the broken-record narrative in much of the news about how awful things are and that they are only going to get worse.

 

By Nicholas Peart

(c)All Rights Reserved

 

 

 

 

Architecture Through The Ages In Budapest

The capital city of Hungary is a delightful city to wonder around. As with my wonderings around the capital cities of various Balkan capitals such as Zagreb, Sarajevo and Belgrade last year, in Budapest there are a wealth of buildings of different architectural styles. Most prominent though are the buildings dating back to the times of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. Those are grand old buildings with fabulously opulent adornments. It’s even more satisfying to discover some of those buildings in splendid dilapidation. That’s the difference between Budapest and its nearby cousin Vienna. Vienna has an abundance of lovely buildings, but almost all are periodically maintained and saved from slipping into ruin. In Budapest its not an uncommon site to see many buildings from that time period fallen on hard times; like a beautiful woman (or man) succumbing to ferocious ageing and too broke to afford a face lift. What money there used to be squandered long ago.

The buildings featured are magnificent Habsburg Empire era structures sometimes abruptly juxtaposed next to brutal and more austere Communist era buildings. Even some Ottoman/Eastern styled buildings. After all Hungary was ruled for 150 years by the Ottoman Empire. A lot of Neo Classical architecture can also be found. Sometimes these Ancient Greece influences are blended into more severe Art Deco architecture. Most of the time I know nothing about the buildings I come into contact with. I am simply just curious about their aesthetic qualities. Its all a fascinating melting pot of different styles. The pictures below, which I took on my wonderings, are evidence of this.

 

IMG_20181023_130425556_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155447682-1560x2080IMG_20181023_133756602-1560x2080IMG_20181023_130510824-1560x2080IMG_20181023_160150262_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_153303283-1560x2080IMG_20181023_160816011_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_153506184-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155604211-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155818937_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_161647791-1560x2080IMG_20181023_132831633_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_161400815-1560x2080IMG_20181023_162317228-1560x2080IMG_20181023_132523602-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155238603-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155542814_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155946754-1560x2080IMG_20181023_132859598-1560x2080IMG_20181023_133252968_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_154958241-1560x2080IMG_20181023_173841338-1560x2080IMG_20181023_132751756_HDR-1560x2080IMG_20181023_155411568-1560x2080IMG_20181023_153214176_BURST001-1560x2080IMG_20181023_154319778-1560x2080IMG_20181023_160016349_HDR-1560x2080

 

Photographs and text by Nicholas Peart

(c)All Rights Reserved 

Accepting Your Contradictions

red purple dots pixabay photo

When I was younger, I tried very hard not to appear a hypocrite. I would look down upon those whom I perceived as blatantly hypocritical and unaware of their own contradictions. Yet no matter how much of a purist I tried to be, holes would always appear in some shape or form. The more I tried not to be a hypocrite, the more I began to feel the weight of life on my shoulders. In the process I felt my vitality and joie de vivre being sapped.

Some of the most inspirational icons in the world were full of contradictions. John Lennon is a great example. For much of his music career he promoted the ideas of peace, love and togetherness. He got his positive messages across to millions of people with great success, but his domestic life was at times anything but peaceful. It has been said that he could be volatile and even physically abusive. He spent very little time with his eldest son Julian (even though he wanted to mend his relationship with Julian before the time of his death). Yet does this diminish my opinion of John Lennon? Absolutely not. He was a hugely talented and authentic singer songwriter who openly acknowledged his flaws and contradictions, often in his songs such as Jealous Guy and Getting Better.

Accepting your contradictions is one of the most liberating and beautiful forms of surrender. The moment you do this, life becomes less heavy and sweeter.

 

By Nicholas Peart

(c)All Rights Reserved 

 

Image: susannp4

Who’s It By?

Picasso - Les_Demoiselles_d'Avignon

Often when looking at a work of art, the first question to pop into the viewer’s head isn’t, ‘What’s it called?’ or ‘What’s it about?’. Rather it is, ‘Who’s it by?’. The more discerning viewer may ask the first two questions, but most will ask the third. Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol, Jackson Pollock, Francis Bacon, Jeff Koons and Damien Hirst are some of the biggest names in modern and contemporary art. It is hard to find someone who has never heard of Picasso before. Yet how many could name the title of one of his many paintings?

Picasso is a brand in the same way that fashion giants Prada, Armani, Chanel and Louis Vuitton are brands. When one looks at a suit, most will invariably try to find out what brand or label it is over any investigations regarding it’s intrinsic qualities. It’s the same with other ubiquitous consumer products like Coca Cola. You can buy a cheaper supermarket cola, which may even contain the exact same ingredients, yet it will never have the same cachet as a ‘Coke’.

The following story encapsulates perfectly the power of ‘Who’s it By’. The artist Bansky recently tested this by submitting an original work of art for the 2018 Summer Exhibition at the Royal Academy of Art in London under the fictitious name ‘Bryan S Gakmann’ (an anagram of ‘Banksy anagram’). It got rejected during the selection process. Nobody had heard of this Bryan S Gakmann chap. Yet when Banksy himself was asked to feature a work at the show by the organizers, he submitted the work rejected under his fake alias. After all, it was a ‘Banksy’ in the end.

 

By Nicholas Peart

(c)All Rights Reserved 

Talent Is Cheaper Than Table Salt

Table Salt

“Talent is cheaper than table salt. What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work.”

These are the words of the writer Stephen King. When I first read this quote several years ago, a part of me was outraged. My thoughts at the time were something along the lines of, ‘Talent is cheaper than table salt!?! Who does this man think he is!?! Talent is an asset goddammit!

After cooling down I re-read that quote in its entirety, beyond the first sentence…. ‘What separates the talented individual from the successful one is a lot of hard work.’ After pondering over the last sentence of King’s quote I slowly developed one hell of a reality check. The quote demythologises the notion of how talent by itself is enough to succeed. For many years I thought talent was all that one needed. All my heroes were outrageously talented and unique human beings. Besides I couldn’t care less for lesser mediocre beings regardless of how hard they worked. I despised mediocrity.

Some complain that we live in a society where mediocrity is rewarded. And maybe they are right to complain? After all some of the biggest names in the world today are quite ordinary people and one could even come to the conclusion that they have very limited talents with nothing enlightening to say. That may be. But they are successful, because they work incredibly hard and know what makes the average individual on the street tick. They work tirelessly whilst also mirroring Joe and Joanna Blogs, giving them what they want.

 

By Nicholas Peart 

(c)All Rights Reserved