When I look back on the last 15 years going back all the way to the beginning of 2009 and the aftermath of the 2007-8 Global Financial Crisis, it is clear that this has been a difficult and rocky period for humanity as a whole. In some ways it feels like many people have still not fully recovered from this crisis. There are so many people who are still struggling and with that there’s a palpable sense of tension and discontent.
In the UK, for example, the early years since the financial crisis were marked by government funding cuts and austerity. Most notably, university tuition fees were tripled. The last fifteen years for young people, especially, have been very tough. As the years progressed we saw the emergence of politicians from the more extreme ends of the spectrum come more to the fore; reflecting this discontent.
Economically, the last 15 years have been a disaster for many people. For over a decade, from 2009-21, the main central banks such as the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the ECB, etc, kept interest rates at near zero percent. The effect of this has been very real. When interest rates are at rock bottom levels, prudence is thrown to the wind. There is no incentive to save money (as it yields no interest) and only encourages rampant speculation and risk taking. And this is what happened during this period. Asset prices for property and many stocks and securities went to the moon. Also, due to interest rates being so low for such a long time, debt levels exploded. During this time frame, total US government debt went from just over $11 trillion at the beginning of 2009 to almost $30 trillion at the end of 2021. As I write this US government debt is now over $33 trillion. Furthermore, average US house prices doubled and the S&P 500 index increased more than 5 times in value. Meanwhile, during this time average wage growth was relatively flat.
Keeping interest rates at such low levels for over a decade has been very damaging for society as a whole. The huge inflation in asset prices, far eclipsing income growth, has not been a good thing. This is certainly true for most of the younger generation where the possibility of owning a home is now very remote. But it isn’t just younger people who are hurting. This prolonged period of Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) has resulted in a level of inequality not seen since 1929 just before the great stock market boom of the Roaring Twenties collapsed and led to the 1930s Depression and a lengthy period of unrest and stagnation.
Globally, it feels like the recent 2020-21 COVID pandemic was this monumental event to manifest during this difficult 15 year period pushing an already hurting population even further into the abyss. It was almost like the punishing final act.
In my view, I believe that we are now at a stage where we have reached a major turning point in economic history. Looking beyond the last 15 years, I think we are now at a moment in time where the wheels of this era of neoliberalism that has prevailed since Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were in power are slowly coming off. This epoch is coming to an end.
What Will The Next 15 Years Bring?
I envisage that the next 15 years is going to be a period of enormous societal and economic changes. The current status quo and core orthodox beliefs of today are going to be turned upside down. This will be an incredibly disruptive time, but ultimately I truly think that it will be beneficial for all of humanity. If I had to compare this forthcoming period to a period in history, I believe that what we are about to experience will be similar to what happened during the French Revolution and the beginning of the Industrial Revolution as well as the Reformation more than 200 years before those two events.
The Industrial Revolution was a time of unprecedented change through game changing innovations that radically transformed the lives of society. Yet in the beginning, at least, some of these inventions were met with fierce resistance from a population worried that such inventions were destroying their livelihoods. However, these inventions created new opportunities and new types of work. Before the Industrial Revolution, large swathes of society, especially those not born into aristocracy, worked gruelling and extremely long hours without the aid of any industrial production units that today are taken for granted.
The French Revolution occurred around the same time as the Industrial Revolution was already getting going. It was a seismic period in history that completely altered the status quo in French society that prevailed for too long. Before the French Revolution, France had a feudal estate based system where society was divided into three estates; the First Estate (made up of the clergy), the Second Estate (made up of the French nobility), and the Third Estate (made up of “commoners”). The Third Estate comprised over 98% of French society that were not part of the clergy or nobility with next to no chance of improving their lot. Basically, if you were not born into money or privilege you were trapped. The Revolution was a violent and bloody event in world history, but it ultimately transformed French society for the better creating a much fairer and more progressive society.
On that same note, I think that during the next 15 years we are going to experience something similar to those years towards the end of the 18th century. We will see many groundbreaking innovations just like during the Industrial Revolution. There will be new and emerging technologies and inventions that will be met with resistance and in some cases with violence by some sections of the global population. However, ultimately, this will all be hugely beneficial for all of society. As a specific example, let’s focus on Artificial Intelligence (AI). This technology has been around for some time, but recently it is being increasingly discussed and there is now a lot of hype around it. Yet there is no denying that this is a powerful technology that doesn’t stand still. People are right to be fearful and concerned by this technology, but I find that a lot of people are looking at it all too myopically. The very real possibility that it will eventually have the power and skills to do any kind of job that a human can do should be embraced. I actually think that AI will make the world a much better place. It will vastly reduce or even eliminate global poverty and will also negate the need for people to work. By this point I don’t even think that we will have an economic model based on Capitalism any more. In an earlier article I wrote back in 2019 entitled, THE TRUE SINGULARITY: A Universe Of Unlimited Abundance And Eternal Harmony, I stated how there would eventually be a “Post-Scarcity” economy of unlimited abundance facilitated by the exponential growth and development of new and emerging technologies like AI, 3D/4D Printing, nanotechnology, etc. Such a “Post-Scarcity” economy of abundance would negate the need for and nullify all the previous economic and ideological models of the past.
I also believe that the political leaders of the next 15 years, compared with the last 15 years, will be of a much more enlightened breed who have more empathy and more of a human touch. They will be less self-serving and less career driven. They will encourage and support new and emerging technologies whilst making sure that everyone benefits. This culture of greed, Silicon Valley mega riches and extreme wealth inequality that has prevailed for far too long will become a thing of the past within the next 15 years.
In the last 8 years, we have already had a taste of the discontent that many feel. Of those who feel neglected, marginalised and struggling economically amidst an unprecedented level of wealth inequality vote for more radical leaders. There is a sense that the current system and status quo is just not working any more for increasing swathes of the population. As long as the can of the current system continues to be kicked down the road, the more unrest and distrust there will continue to be. This is why I foresee in the coming years an event similar to the French Revolution. It will be an ugly, violent and potentially dangerous and unstable time, but it will also result in much needed changes that will lead to a better and more stable world. It will also create a society with a completely new set of values and core beliefs. And I would even go as far as saying that we will all be much more enlightened and more caring and altruistic as a society. I very much believe, as unrealistic as it may currently seem, that this is the new kind of world that will exist in the next 15 years and it will be a much better world than this existing one.
Nicholas Peart
16th January 2024
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